Russia Drops the dollar and China shows force

Two events just happened that no one is talking about. The first one is Putin openly asked the CIS nations to abandon the dollar. In a time of already economic uncertainty this is worrisome. China's economy is barely afloat with massive stimulus injections from its own government. Seeing several oil producing nations move away from the dollar could be catastrophic.

The second is a Chinese naval task force was spotted off the coast of Alaska during President Obama's visit.  It was made up of 3 warships, a replenishment vessel, and an amphibious vessel. This is the first time that China has strayed that far from home. You can bet this is a message.

But this quote is what really worries me:
    "It's difficult to tell exactly, but it indicates some interest in the Arctic region," one Pentagon official said. "It's different."
Both Russia and now China are interested in staking a claim in the Arctic right in our back yard.

Silent Running

Take a look at this youtube video of fighters in Ukraine. This guy suppressed his RPD for automatic fire! Thats a level of sophistication the average Soldier doesnt do. Who helped them with this?

Through the Looking Glass

This hits right in the feels.

Korea Smolders

It looks like the recent tensions in Korea have gotten even more tense. Amid negotiations, the North Korean Navy has put 70% of its submarines to sea and doubled the number of artillery units on the border with the DMZ.

This is worrisome to say the least. Its unlikely that it will develop into a shooting war, but as it continues to escalate, then the possibility is still there. And the longer the the stand off goes the higher the chance it will eventually turn into a shooting war.

UPDATE
Reports of Chinese troops moving to the North Korean border. This doesnt make any sense unless China would be throwing in North Korea. But why move reinforcements so far from Seoul? Is it to preserve them from the initial blood shedding and nukes? This bears watching.

Here I Am, Give Me Everything!

So I've been following the immigration crisis in Europe with my peripheral attention, but this morning something caught my eye. Immigrants that have been illegally sneaking into Greece organized a sit in and demanded papers and food.

    KOS, Greece (AP) — Fights broke out among migrants Tuesday on the Greek island of Kos, where overwhelmed authorities are struggling to contain increasing numbers of people arriving clandestinely on rubber dinghies from the nearby Turkish shore.

Hundreds of protesting migrants demanding quick registration began blocking the main coastal road in the island's main town, staging a sit-in.

"We want papers, we want to eat!" they chanted.

Hundreds of people arrive on Greece's eastern Aegean islands daily, many after fleeing conflict in Syria and Afghanistan. Authorities, locals and charity groups are struggling to provide registration, food and shelter to the new arrivals, many of whom are children.

Look at that quote for a second. "We want papers, we want to eat!" they chanted.

Think about that sense of entitlement. These people illegally snuck into the country and then have the audacity to demand immigration paperwork and a hot meal, and it better be right now! Never mind that the immigration authorities are completely overwhelmed. Never mind that they circumvented the legal and proper way to immigrate the country. They're here now and you better bend over backwards to accommodate them. 

I get that they are running from an active war zone. But to show up and start throwing demands around with no thanks for the people that are actually taking them in? Imagine in you walked into your neighbors house and demanded they stop what they were doing, fix you up a room and cook you a meal right now because you're living there now. I imagine it wouldn't go well.

Another thing about the article concerns me.

    Greece has been overwhelmed by the number of migrants arriving, with at least 124,000 people reaching the eastern islands in the first seven months of this year alone. The figure represents a staggering 750 percent increase over the same period last year, according to figures from the United Nations' refugee agency, the UNHCR.

In all, Greek police said Monday that 156,726 migrants had been arrested for entering or remaining in the country illegally from January through July 2015, compared to 32,070 for the same months in 2014.

HOLY FUCK those numbers. That's almost a 500% increase in one year of people moving into the country. And Greece is already a shithole. Where are these people supposed to get jobs from when the country is defaulting.

Its true that most of them are trying to push deeper into Europe to France and Germany but I guarantee you things aren't much better there.

Greece isn't the only entry nation having problems. Hungary is trying to build a fucking 100 mile long fence. And because they're succeeding immigration there has actually sped up as people try and get in before the fence is complete! The Hungarians are actually going to pull it off too. They're having the military set up the fence, but they are also using prison inmates and people on welfare to help construct it faster. That's the only part of the situation I actually like. They're giving unemployed people a job.

If we look at Hungary's immigration numbers, they are just as bad as Greece. Last year 43,000 people applied for asylum. So far this year 100,000 have applied and its only August. Officials have stated they expect to get 300,000 by the end of the year.

This massive wave of immigration is causing a dilemma for Europe. They have two options. 1. They go broke trying to support these people while adhering to their socialist ideologies and Europe plunges into chaos an becomes a Muslim state. 2. They become more conservative and authoritarian and start kicking these people out or making them work for a living. There is even a slim chance they over correct and go back to the European time honored tradition of putting people in camps.  

Russian Anti-American Sentiment

While this article in itself is pretty interesting, I found the comments section far more disturbing. I browse foreign nations news sources to get an understanding of world opinion for the United States, so that I can predict how other nations will act. The comments section for Russia Today is entirely Anti-American. That's not really a surprise. The surprise is to what degree. Actively calling for a nuclear war to show the US a lesson? That's terrifying if its a main stream view.

 

This kind of nationalism could explain Putin's soaring approval ratings.

1984

According to this study, the order in which Google search results post news articles for candidates can sway undecided voters. Because of how close elections are, half of American elections have come down to less than an 8% margin, this is terrifying. Not to mention that most elections are decided only in swing states. If Google decided to show only positive articles for their candidate, and negative articles for an opposing candidate, the majority of uneducated voters would be subtly guided to Google's will.


To make matters worse, in the 2010 election Facebook send a random message to 61 million users urging them to vote. 340,000 people voted who would otherwise have not. Seeing as how Facebook knows what you like and who you support, they could send that message to just one parties voters.


And to top it all off the researchers in the study actually tried it in India during an election, and it worked.

The Fire Spreads

Its been awhile since I've last posted. I was in the field for awhile and had to get back up to speed.


It appears that the conflict in Yemen has escalated with two Saudi Armored Brigades deploying to Yemen.




This is huge news and its not anywhere in the main stream media. The Saudis are not prepared to win a fight in Yemen. We have fought all of their battles for them for the past 2 decades. This has allowed them to look strong while in reality the Monarchy is weak. Yemen in going to be their version of Iraq.


If and when Saudi Arabia loses in Yemen it will destabilize the Monarchy and add to the chaos in the Middle East.

The Clusterfuck Of The Middle East: Part 1

[I've been on a bit of a hiatus - I had a project where I was building an EEG machine with a hacked Mindflex toy and an Arduino microcontroller, but now that that's finished, I'm back]

Hoboy. Here we go.

What the fuck is going on in the middle east? You may be wondering. Let me break it down for ya:

Daesh

I'm gonna start this off by saying I don't like the term ISIS or ISIL. The terrorist organization has undergone several name changes since it's inception, so there are plenty to choose from. There are other places that cover it all in greater detail, but the story of Daesh goes that in 1999 a loose network of Jordanians under some guy who was so brutal he pissed off al-Qaeda started a group called Jama'at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad that became Tanzim Qaidat al-Jihad fi Bilad al-Rafidayn in 2004 (also known then as al-Qaeda in Iraq, AQI [Not to be confused with AQIM] or al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia). They teamed up with 5 other Mujahideen organizations and in early 2006, formed an umbrella organization called the Mujahideen Shura Council, which disbanded later that year and reorganized under the name The Islamic State of Iraq, or Dalwat al-Iraq al-Islamiyyah. They went on like this until 2013, when they changed their name to al-Dawla al-Islamiyyah al-Iraq al-Sham, and it is from this we can pull the Arabic acronym Daesh (this meaning The Islamic State of Iraq and the Sham, The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, or the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria; ISIS and ISIL respectively). Since 2014, they've gone by al-Dawla al-Islamiyyah, the Islamic State, or just al-Dawla for short.

Daesh is more than just an Arabic acronym, it has negative undertones as it sounds like both Daes, or "one who crushes something underfoot," and dahes, "One who sows discord." So, it's got negative connotations either way. If we were just picking names for the acronym I'd call them State Holding Islamic Terrorists, or some shit like that.

Daesh still controls a large amount of territory within Iraq and Syria. The Caliphate is continuing to grow at alarming speeds, although not necessarily within this region. They've had several radical Sunni groups pledge allegience to them, such as al-Shabaab in Somalia, militant Chechens in Russia, and Boko Haram in Nigeria to name a few, as well as a presence in many others, like the Philippines, Afghanistan and North Africa.

Recently fighters in Libya were able to retake a stronghold in Derna from Daesh control, though they claim this is only a minor setback and doesn't effect their operational abilities in the Islamic Maghreb. They clearly aren't fucking around as the last few weeks have had headlines detailing their recent gun attack on a Tunisian beach, Tunisian SF have only just foiled yet another Daesh plot.

This is what a terrorist attack looks like

In addition to these attacks, Daesh has also been busy elsewhere. The United States recently launched a drone strike that took out a bunch of their leadership in Afghanistan, fucking up Shahidullah Shahid and about 30 other insurgents in a compound near the Pakistani border. Shahid was part of the Pakistani Taliban faction who splintered off to join Daesh in Afghanistan.  

Syria

Syria's having a whole lot of not fun right now. A much older post I wrote chronicles how Syria got to where it is, and it hasn't been much better since then.

Map of Syria, 8 Days before my previously linked post was originally published

Map of Syria, as of last week

Interestingly enough, around the time of the previously linked piece on Syria, there was a whole bunch of shit going around about the chemical attacks taking place in the country. The international conversation was "Was it al-Assad? Was it a rebel group?" and "Should we intervene? Does it really matter who it was, doesn't this need to stop, no matter who did it?" Most people in America, who were only then just tuning in, thought this was a fairly rational response, and their politicians were looking out for a people being slaughtered far away. A lot of the national conversation going on was "Should we get involved, even with all of this?" Most people did not want another war in the middle east, and Putin made Obama look like a bitch on the national stage.

I, however, was rather convinced we didn't give a shit about anyone in this country and we only wanted to position ourselves geopolitically to expand our sphere of influence and impede on Russia's, who has a port in Syria. 

Given how big of a stink this was in the media, I was at first surprised, then full of contempt when I read about the recent attacks in Deir ez Zor. Here was Assad's forces, fighting Daesh and Jabhat al-Nusra in the highly contested city, actually openly using chemical agents that killed civilians. And the world has said nary a peep about it. Unless the climate is right for a nation to exploit a situation for their own benefit, nobody is going to give a shit. Always keep that in mind when reading "news". 

Next time: Kurdistan and Turkey.

China's Stock Bubble

In the last three weeks China's stock market has dropped by about 25%. Thats roughly $2.36 trillion dollars, or ten times the GDP of Greece. Its a metric fuck-ton of money.

China's stock market is still up about 20% from the beginning of the year.  Due to the massive growth we see in the graph above the law of averages states that a "balancing" was in order. The question is how much more their stock market will drop and how that effects us. Analysts predict it could drop another 35%  which would be roughly another trillion dollars.

So how does that affect us? Well;
"What happens in China will turn out to be far more consequential than any sting that Greece may deliver over the coming weeks or months,'' said Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong. "As China's equity markets lose their roar, the risk is that demand more broadly on the Mainland could take a hit. That would knock out an essential engine of world demand over the past decade. As dramatic as events in Greece currently appear, however, ultimately, it's difficult to see these proving decisive for the world economy.''

China has been pushing hard to develop as hard as could to modernize and get on equal foot with the rest of the world. That may slow or stop, hurting businesses and industries that have building China's infrastructure.

"Study strategy over the years and achieve the spirit of the warrior. Today is victory over yourself of yesterday; tomorrow is your victory over lesser men." - Miyamoto Musashi

Thor's Quick Guide to WTF Is Going On in Syria? [Republished!]

[NOTE- This was originally written and published 22 months ago today, on August 30 2013 at 1324 hours. It has been preserved in its original form, to preserve both accuracy and serve as a record of my writing and linguistic stylings, as well as my thought process and understanding of the situation. This also started an argument between myself and Blue Djinn, which started with the phrase "illegally occupying the Golan Heights my ass" and kept going from there. Israel is something we know we don't see eye to eye on, but can agree to disagree, because we're fucking gentlemen like that. ]

The whole Syria thing is a clusterfuck, and I'm trying to figure all of it out. Correct me if I'm wrong, and point me towards whatever resources may help clarify who what where and why with this whole thing. All of your news is either propaganda or bullshit, so lets just look at the facts, and the motives each of the nations has. There really aren't any 'good guys' or 'bad guys' in this situation, and almost everything you'll read on this subject is heavily slanted in one direction. American propaganda is gearing up to justify a war with Syria and Iran, while Russian propaganda is gearing up to justify a war in Saudi Arabia. Anyway, this is my understanding of how this all came to be:

Let’s start with Syria's independence after the Second World War. They literally couldn't hold on to a leader, with generals and leaders being ousted and deposed all the time. This instability lead people to oppose the government and demand reforms. Now, Egypt became all buddy-buddy with the USSR after the USA was pissed they recognized the PRC. There was something about a dam, and the Egyptians tried to nationalize the Suez Canal, and that lead to another Arab-Israeli war. Syria was involved in this, attacking Israel from the North. Because they were friends with Egypt, and Egypt was friends with USSR, Syria and USSR became great friends. The Russians gave Syria a bunch of weapons and other cool shit for allowing them to spread their influence in the region (and this pissed off Turkey, who doesn't like Syria). Around 1958, Syria and Egypt were like "Hey! Let’s blanda upp and become one country!" A lot of the political parties of Syria didn't like that, and they had to all stop what they were doing and do shit in secret.

Ah, Polandball.

Hafez al-Assad, Bashar's father, was one of those guys. He and his military buddies made a super-awesome secret club for the Ba'ath party. Baathists are socialists who advocate for a single Arab state, free of imperialist (re: Western) influence, and were somewhat secularist (but also Sunni Muslims). So the Syrian Government gets overthrown (again!) and these guys take over. It was the 1963 coup, and then the government was all "Aw shit! We're in a state of Emergency! Let’s suspend the constitution and everybody's rights!" And it stayed like that for 48 years (Don't worry, America. I'm sure the state of Emergency you've been in since 9/11 will pass soon and you'll have your rights back any day now! You're different than these people!)

So if we've learned anything from history, it’s that it repeats itself, which it does in Syria. There are, once again, multiple coups and shit, and eventually the Baath party splinters into two factions: The Iraqi one that Saddam belonged to, and the Syrian one Hafez al-Assad belonged to.

When the Baath party took power, it outlawed the other parties. So now the Kurds, the hardline Muslim Brotherhood guys, religious minorities, didn't have political parties or influence. That really pissed off a lot of people, and the Muslim Brotherhood had a bunch of armed uprisings as a result. In fact, in 1980 being a member of the Muslim Brotherhood could mean death for you. Yeah, Assad killed people like that. So they fought back, and in 1982 the Hama Uprising began, and Hafez al-Assad sent a bunch of troops to siege the city. Between 10-40,000 people died. 

So as you can see, Syria wasn't THAT great a place to be, but it also wasn't that bad. It was a secular government, not some Muslim shit hole. It was possible to survive being a Shia or a Christian or a Jew. But people wanted their rights and an end to the Martial Law. 

So fast forward to 2000. Hafez al-Assad dies, and his son, Bashar, runs in the election unopposed. The Damascus Spring happens, but nothing comes of it and Assad suppresses the movement. As we can see, it takes a few times and a few uprisings to get shit into gear to get your rights back (so the 'failure' of OWS and the Tea Party movements aren't failures, but shows that we in America are on the right track). This kind of shit goes on until 2010, when something magical happens!

The Arab Spring begins in December 2010, and spreads to Syria quickly. In March 2011, about 15 teenagers are arrested and beaten by cops. The people didn't like this shit, and started a bunch of protests. Around the same time, there were protests around the funeral of someone who died in the Syrian Army, supposedly from an electric shock, but it was rumored he was tortured by security forces. So basically, Syria was as bad, the kind of bad the USA is heading for.

Assad cracks down, and that pisses off the international community, and the people. More people die, and get angry. He sees "Well shit, this isn't working, I guess I better do some reforming." He replaces his entire cabinet, begins reforms, and even was set to repeal the martial law. After that, though, he said there would be no grounds for the continued massive protests, and would consider the opposition "sabotage" if they continued.

The protesters at this point were more focused on getting Assad out of power than they were at the reforms. Although anti-government protests drew crowds, the pro-Assad rallies drew bigger ones at first. And then the fighting starts, and BOOM! Civil war.  

So who is on what side? Syria is a key position in the Mediterranean, so them being friends with Russia is really, really good for Russia. And as we can see, historically Syria and Russia are pretty tight, like they are with Egypt. Israel hates them, and they want their historic Israel and are taking it by force from Palestine. They also illegally occupy Syria's Golan Heights, which has natural resources they are just going to take. 

Speaking of resources, the Caspian Sea has tons of oil, and there's a pipeline that takes it through Turkey, to the Mediterranean, and down to Israel, to get through the Gulf of Aqaba (the body of water on the other side of the Sinai Peninsula from Suez). From there it goes to Asia. This makes Turkey and Israel lots of sheckles. So Israel does not like Syria, and is invading their land, pillaging for resources, and trying to keep the conflict there going to prevent oil from flowing elsewhere (cough Syria cough Iran cough cough). Also involved in this tangled little web of conflict is a little organization called Hezbollah, based in Lebanon. They have taken the side of Assad, and fight for the government of Syria in the civil war. They're also better known for attacking Israel for being Israel. Hezbollah is backed by Iran, and Iran is friendly to Assad. They're kinda in a serious bromance. It’s so serious, that an attack on Syria is an attack on Iran. 

We also have the Muslim Brotherhood involved. These guys were running the government of Egypt under President Morsi from 2012 until the military overthrew the government in July of this year and is currently being led by General Abdul Fatah al-Sisi.  So the Muslim Brotherhood no longer has the same power in Egypt that it did. The USA is friendly with the Muslim Brotherhood and was friendly with Morsi. We aren’t as friendly with Sisi. 

So far, we have Israel, USA and Turkey being friends. USA is friends with Muslim Brotherhood. Muslim Brotherhood, Turkey, Israel and USA support the rebels and getting Assad out of power. Iran is backing Assad against those powers, so Iran is against the USA and Israel (obviously). Here’s where it gets tricky:

We also have the oil producing Gulf States to think of (aka, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.). The Gulf States are against Assad.  That means they’re with the Muslim Brotherhood, right? WRONG. They’re also pro General Sisi, against the Muslim Brotherhood, but also friendly to the USA.

But you can’t forget about Hamas in this conflict! Hamas rules the Gaza Strip, and fucking HATES Israel. Iran backs Hamas. Hamas hates the USA, but also supports the Muslim Brotherhood because they are an offshoot of them.

Our ally Turkey is with the Gulf States against Assad. However, they also support the Muslim Brotherhood (who the Gulf States oppose) against General Sisi. Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, is also backed by Iran against Israel and the USA against rebel groups, meaning that Hezbollah is against al-Qaeda. The USA and al-Qaeda are ‘enemies’ but working together against Assad.

So Syria has (had?) plans for a new oil pipeline that would threaten the wealth that brings to our allies. A continuous conflict will prevent that from being built. It’s no coincidence that now there are dozens of nationalities fighting a jihad in Syria in what used to be a Civil War. Iran also wants to sell oil in gold, not dollars. The USA’s petrodollar system ensures everyone trades oil in dollars, requiring everyone to have dollars, driving up the demand and keeping the dollar strong no matter how shitty our economy is. There were a few other world leaders who wanted to do the same thing, but the United States killed them (like in Libya, when we killed Gaddafi the same year he was nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize because he wanted to switch to the Gold Dinar). Iran has started the Iranian Crude Oil Exchange, an exchange market specifically for trading oil in other currencies. 

This is not good for the USA, since our currency isn’t backed by gold anymore, but black gold. So we need a way into Iran. Hey, remember when we tried convincing the world they were gonna build a nuke? And wipe poor Israel off the map, even though Israel refuses to sign the NNPT and Iran is a member? And remember when the CIA and Mossad came out and said “Lol, they don’t have shit and aren’t trying to build any nukes” so we dropped the whole thing for a bit?

It was about this time last year they did that. That’s also when Obama started talkin’ about that “thin red line” that Assad shouldn’t cross. They talked and talked and talked about the possibility of Assad using chemical weapons. And if he did, we were gonna liberate the shit out of him like we did to Iraq. So Assad knows the ONE THING he shouldn’t do if he doesn’t want the USA to invade is use chemical weapons.

THEN, EARLIER THIS YEAR, CHEMICAL WEAPON WERE USED! But it wasn’t Assad who did it. As soon as it happened, American/Western media reported immediately Assad used chemical weapons. After a UN investigation, it was concluded that the rebels/terrorists who the USA is supporting used Chemical Weapons. This is still cited right now as proof Assad used chemical weapons. 

In July of 2011, the Syrian Army raided a rebel stronghold, and found tons of lab equipment and ingredients for chemical weapons. This was in Jobar, outside of Damascus.

On August 21, they were used again outside of Damascus. Again, Western Media immediately blamed Assad, and the USA continues to do so without any proof. We tried getting Britain involved, and they sent warships before their Parliament said “fuck no, we’re not going in there.” So the USA had been sending its fleet to the region, in preparation for this, especially before budget cuts force us to cut down on our presence in the region. So far, we have 5 missile cruisers and an unknown number of subs in the Mediterranean, and two Aircraft Carrier strike group in the Persian Gulf. Russia responded by sending a bunch of their shit to the port they control in Syria. Iran said if we attack Syria, Syria and Iran will turn Israel to glass. If they try doing that, the USA and Israel will attack Iran. Russia does not want the USA to attack Syria, and might step in. They claim they won’t with their words, but their actions say “back off or we’ll fuck you up.” The Saudis (friends of USA, enemies of Assad and Russia) offered Russia a bunch of natural gas and stuff to drop their support of Assad. They also said “hey, you got them Olympics coming up soon.  We control the Chechen terrorists who might do something to it. You should take our offer, it’d be a shame if anything happened…” which pissed off Putin immensely. So an attack on Iran might, in turn, cause retaliation attacks on the Allies of the USA, namely Israel and Saudi Arabia.

[Anyone else think it’s slightly odd that Boston was orchestrated by Chechen terrorists, whom our ‘friends’ the Saudis claim control over? Especially after the FBI straight up executed an unarmed, injured Ibragim Todashev?].

Evidence that the Aug. 21 attacks were done by Assad is shaky at best. Israel (who is against Assad!) claims that their wiretapping provided all the evidence. The USA is quick to try a build a coalition before the UN finishes their inspection, and are even talking of going in alone if need be. However, the side we support has been caught with chemical weapons before, and was just caught with the shit required to make them. And now, suddenly that they’ve been used, Assad did it? I’m not buying it.

So that’s the situation, folks. We have no real evidence that Assad did anything, the white house released something that would have gotten me a C in my sophomore year of high school as ‘evidence’, and the USA is trying to erase old cold war alliances and put in western-friendly forces instead so we can continue to control the oil.

I previously posted that the US was backing Kurdish forces fighting in Syria with airstrikes. The Kurds have recently been having great success in advancing on IS territory and dealing Daesh a decisive defeat when they took Kobani.

The Kurdish population Syria is mostly located in the North of the Country along the board with Turkey. They are separated into small groups, but as the YPG, Peoples' Protection Units, drive Daesh back, they unify them into one mass. Turkey is alarmed and worried that they will attempt to declare the northern chunk of Syria an independent Kurdish nation.

Now as a westerner, that doesnt seem so bad. The Middle East is a  shitshow and the Kurds are the only one stomping Daesh ass right now. The Iraqi Army runs away from any fight they get involved in, but the Kurds are hitting Daesh hard. So why not let them have a country?

The problem for us is that we are friends with Turkey, and Turkey sees the Kurds as a terrorist group. They have been engaged in a low level conflict with the PPK, Kurdish Workers Party, since 1984. But Kurds in general have wanted independence since the fall of the Ottoman empire. After all, the rest of the Middle East was split up into independent nations. Turkey in general is not a very hospitable place to be non-Turk. Just after the SCOTUS banned gay marriage bans in the US, there was a gay pride mach in Turkey. It was broken up with fire hoses and CS gas. Turkey is a autocratic nation where the Turks run it and to hell with anyone else. But they are also the 2nd largest armed force in NATO. Which is why we turn a blind eye to Turkish oppression. We want their support so bad we are willing to let the Turks push into Syria and destroy the YPG instead if Daesh. Which is exactly what they are planning to do in the immediate future.  

"Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer." - Sun Tzu

The Cost of Light Infantry

Warning! This post is not meant as an inflammatory or suggestion to do anything. It is merely to point out that in the Unites States, with few exceptions such as California, an individual can own all the same equipment necessary to act as a light infantryman. Also every item can be purchased over the internet (thats why some items appear more expensive than they should, Amazon sells in bulk). The below list makes up the absolute basic necessities to sustain for 72 hours and fight, with the ability to sustain for much, much longer given a resupply of water, food, and ammunition. I have not included communications equipment, or and sort of signaling capabilities due to too many variables. I understand that an individual cannot just buy a list of equipment and suddenly become a warrior. That requires a lot of training and the fiscal costs for that are not included in this list, though I may do a post that later. Training is by far more important and much more expensive.

On Person
x1 M4 Carbine $950                                               $950
x1 Vortex Strikefire II Red Dot $180                     $180
x1 IOTV with level III soft armor $190                 $190
x2 IV Plates $155                                                   $310
x1 ACH $165                                                          $165
x2 M4 Triple Mag Pouch $20                                 $40
x3 M4 Double Mag Pouch $15                               $45
x7 M4 Magazine $9                                                $63
x2 Grenade Pouch $7                                              $14
x2 1qt Canteen Pouch $15                                       $30
x2 1qt Canteen $8                                                    $16
x1 3L Camelback $40                                              $40
x1 Waist Pouch $20                                                 $20
x1 IFAK $45                                                            $45
x1 Tritium Lensatic Compass $90                           $90
x1 Red Lens Head Lamp $50                                  $50
x1 200rd battlepack 5.56mm $73                             $73
x1 C4T boots (if necessary) $120                             $120
                                                                                SBT $2441
In Assault Pack
 Assault Pack $70                                                  $70
 Poncho Liner $30                                                 $30
 Poncho $45                                                           $45
 Entrenching Tool Pouch $20                                $20
 Entrenching Tool $40                                           $40
 200rd battlepack 5.56mm $73                               $73
 CR2 Lithium Battery 6 pack (For Red Dot) $15   $15
 AA battery 20 pack $10                                        $10
 boot sock 3 pack $10                                            $10
                                                                               SBT$313
In Rucksack
 Rucksack $100                                                      $100
 Sleep System $170                                                $170
 Gen 1 Gortex Parka $80                                        $80
 Cold Weather Bottoms $20                                   $20
 Cold Weather Top $20                                          $20
 Weapon Cleaning Kit $13                                     $13
 Rem Oil $3                                                            $3
 200rd battlepack 5.56mm $73                               $73
 Baby Wipes 4 pack $10                                         $10
 Hand Sanitizer 3 pack $6                                       $6
 boot sock 3 pack $10                                             $10
x2 2qt Canteen with Pouch $17                              $34
 Wool Cold Weather Gloves $4                              $4
 Cool Weather Shooting Gloves $26                      $26
 Tan Tshirt 3 pack $20                                            $20
 Gallon ziploc bags $5                                             $5
 Small Trash bags, 4 gal $7                                     $7
100mph tape $7                                                       $7
100ft 550 Cord $16                                                 $16
Hygiene Kit $73                                                      $73
   Foot Powder $10
   tooth brush $3
   toothpaste $5
   Ibprofuen $9
   Moleskin $6
   Razor $12
   Shaving Cream $15
   Sunscreen $6
   Chapstick  $7
                                                                               SBT $697
                                                                             

x1 Box MRE  $88 (3 broken down in waist pouch, 3 in assault pack, 6 in ruck)

                                                                             Total $3539

$3539 is all it takes to act as a light infantryman for 72 hours, and longer if you have access to logistically resupply. This can be supplemented by additional equipment such as night vison (completely legal), radios, flares and other equipment to make operations easier.

But honestly 3500 dollars is chump change when it comes to buying ammo and targets to train and become proficient with other people. Thats where the real costs are.

"The supreme art of war is to subdue your enemy without fighting." - Sun Tzu

On Global Perspective

Humans are not good at thinking about the long term, and that's not good for our species. Responsible voters, responsible citizens, ought to train themselves to identify long-term problems that aren't immediately visible to themselves. It is the duty of every man and every woman to educate themselves on matters of their entire species, of their planet at large. Once upon a time, humans lived in isolated tribes, which with agriculture allowed cities and towns, countries, kingdoms, nations, entire peoples. They all had some neighbors, with whom they always traded with and went to war with. We didn't know what our entire planet looked like. Our history has always looked like this, with each group of humans hypothesizing divine creation in isolation in the cosmos. Ever model in history we have is based off of this.

However, limiting ourselves to short-term thinking is a luxury we no longer have. As our planet becomes increasingly unified, we understand with international travel that the emergence of a deadly disease (like Ebola, H1N1, MERS, SARS, etc) has the ability to spread much more rapidly. Things that could once wipe out only a community, can now pose a threat to entire species.

It is the same with economies. Greece falling might trigger Spain or Italy to fall, then Ireland, and Portugal, and then France, and finally Germany. Once all of Europe has fallen, the chain reaction can sustain itself across our ever so connected global economy. 

I get it. We're wired to respond to threats when you're at a cafe in a Shia neighborhood and a bunch of angry young Sunnis start screaming and go pop. You're wired to respond to threats like when an airplane gets flown into a tower a nuclear plant is leaking radioactive waste into the ocean. But we don't see the large, abstract threats. It's why we saw everything leading up to the 2008 crash, and many people recognized it for what it was, but everyone kept at it, business as usual, until the inevitable happened. Why? Because it wasn't an immediate, tangible threat. 

While many will look at Greece and dismiss is at as irrelevant, far away land, the fact is that no matter where you are in the world, the actions this country takes can and will effect you. And no matter how much you know this, or don't know this, you have to understand that on some level, you aren't wired to handle this. Our species has not had to face problems on such a scale before, at any time in their existence. The worst disease we ever knew of, the Black Death, only wiped out people on one continent, long before the age of automobiles and airplanes. 

We are not wired to think about, or even address problems such as this one:

The kind of problems we face now are truly unique, there is nothing in our histories, in our stories of Gods and Heroes, that can show us the way, because no civilization in our history has faced the problems we are coming upon. We are pioneers of our own right, treading into an unknown, where the decisions we make will reverberate throughout time. For all we know, several civilizations of ours have made it to this point before, and making the wrong decision as one society can mean consequences for our entire species.

I can't stand hippies any more. I hear so much bullshit and drivel from them about how we are "one species" and we need more of a "one consciousness", which largely comes out to being Marxist indoctrination wrapped up in new age feel good bullshit [I need to find a better synonym for bullshit here], yet they're incapable of actually being anything they espouse with such a passion. Change requires sacrifice. Change requires effort. For most of our species existence, change required a large body count.

Be wary of anyone who merely talks about global idealism, and stresses the importance of it, without being able to actually practice it. To really adopt the identity of a global species, we have to pay attention to events that happen across our entire planet. We ought to know what wars are going on, and why. We should know how the game of politics and geopolitics is played.

Part of our responsibility as citizens is identifying what we, as a species, do well and not well, and to face uncomfortable truths. From those truths, we take action. It's time for our species to take a critical look at itself, in a new light, and actually try to forge a way forward in a way that will preserve the species, to preserve life, in the long term. It's not how we're wired to think, but it's how we have to train ourselves to think to survive a globalized, connected world. We have to turn our attention to problems that are slow burns, rather than huge explosions.

South American Dragon

I’ve touched before on China’s growing in influence in South America. For the last few years a Chinese Billionaire, Wang Jing, has been planning on building a new canal through Nicaragua to compete with the Panama Canal. Now, it has finally broken ground and begun constructing roads to get heavy machinery into the jungle.

Now why does China want to build a new canal? The Panama Canal is much shorter, can already handle all but the largest of ships and is going through a $5 Billion dollar expansion.  Construction of a new canal in Nicaragua is drawing harsh criticism from the environmental community. By all accounts the damage to the ecosystem in Nicaragua, one of the world’s most diverse and sensitive ecosystems, would be severe.  The route would go through Lake Nicaragua, a massive inland fresh water lake. The mixing of salt water into the environment would damage habitats. Lake Nicaragua is only 50ft deep on average. The lake would need to be dredged to 90ft to be deep enough, exposing heavy metals in the silt to marine life. Besides destroying wildlife preserves up to 100,000 people may be displaced as China will effectively gain control over large swaths of the country to build the canal itself and support infrastructure. Many citizens who used to die hard supporters for President Daniel Ortega and fought for him in the 70s and 80s are outraged. It could possibly lead to civil war in Nicaragua.

So why are they building this canal? It doesn’t seem like the benefits outweigh the drawbacks. The canal is expected to cost $50 billion dollars and not be finished until 2020. Most analysts don’t even think it will be competitive enough with the Panama Canal to produce a profit. The canal would have to generate $5 Billion dollars a year to be productive. As of 2014 the Panama Canal only generates $2 billion a year. A small benefit to Nicaragua is they will build two deep water ports, of which the country has none, and will hopefully create 250,000 jobs.

But Nicaragua isn’t trying the build the canal, China is. So far it is not publically acknowledged that the Chinese government is supporting the construction, but it’s not unreasonable to think it is. In the past China proved I was willing to be the aggressor in the Sino-Indian war because the benefits of gained territory and showing the world they were the big kid on the block outweighed loss in political capital on the world stage. So if China thinks there is something important to gain they will sacrifice money and burn down a rain forest to get it.

Geopolitically, the canal would further strengthen China’s foothold in South America. China’s trade with the continent increased from $12 billion in 2000 to $250 billion in 2012. It is a major buyer of Venezuelan oil and gas and Brazilian iron ore. The Nicaraguan canal would transport super-tankers capable of carrying 2.3 million barrels of oil EACH, too big for Panama. China has been massively investing in South America in return for its natural resources power its economy. Being on the other side of the world, those resources get to China one of two ways; they go through the Panama or the Suez Canal. If China fights a conflict in the South China Sea the route through the Suez Canal would be closed. It’s not impossible to imagine that the US could close the Panama Canal to China if they wanted to. From this perspective I can slightly understand why China might want to build their own canal that can take even more materials than the Panama Canal. But to me it doesn’t seem worth the $50 billion dollars.

 

 

I think it’s a $50 billion dollar investment to buy a foot hold in South America. China has been selling arms to South American countries for years now and has become the 3^rd largest arms dealer in the world. China plans its strategy out years in advance. It has also recently announced that it intends to increase the size of its navy to 351 ships, larger than the US navy.  Building this canal gives them the excuse to build to deep water ports and the influence to station their growing navy there. This would allow them to project power right into the United State’s back yard. They can lock down the South China Sea with air power from the Senkaku Islands and land based missiles, and send most of their warships to South America, making them a true super power.