Sunday, July 12, 2015

The Clusterfuck Of The Middle East: Part 1

[I've been on a bit of a hiatus - I had a project where I was building an EEG machine with a hacked Mindflex toy and an Arduino microcontroller, but now that that's finished, I'm back]

Hoboy. Here we go.

What the fuck is going on in the middle east? You may be wondering. Let me break it down for ya:

Daesh

I'm gonna start this off by saying I don't like the term ISIS or ISIL. The terrorist organization has undergone several name changes since it's inception, so there are plenty to choose from. There are other places that cover it all in greater detail, but the story of Daesh goes that in 1999 a loose network of Jordanians under some guy who was so brutal he pissed off al-Qaeda started a group called Jama'at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad that became Tanzim Qaidat al-Jihad fi Bilad al-Rafidayn in 2004 (also known then as al-Qaeda in Iraq, AQI [Not to be confused with AQIM] or al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia). They teamed up with 5 other Mujahideen organizations and in early 2006, formed an umbrella organization called the Mujahideen Shura Council, which disbanded later that year and reorganized under the name The Islamic State of Iraq, or Dalwat al-Iraq al-Islamiyyah. They went on like this until 2013, when they changed their name to al-Dawla al-Islamiyyah al-Iraq al-Sham, and it is from this we can pull the Arabic acronym Daesh (this meaning The Islamic State of Iraq and the Sham, The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, or the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria; ISIS and ISIL respectively). Since 2014, they've gone by al-Dawla al-Islamiyyah, the Islamic State, or just al-Dawla for short.

Daesh is more than just an Arabic acronym, it has negative undertones as it sounds like both Daes, or "one who crushes something underfoot," and dahes, "One who sows discord." So, it's got negative connotations either way. If we were just picking names for the acronym I'd call them State Holding Islamic Terrorists, or some shit like that.

Daesh still controls a large amount of territory within Iraq and Syria. The Caliphate is continuing to grow at alarming speeds, although not necessarily within this region. They've had several radical Sunni groups pledge allegience to them, such as al-Shabaab in Somaliamilitant Chechens in Russia, and Boko Haram in Nigeria to name a few, as well as a presence in many others, like the Philippines, Afghanistan and North Africa.

Recently fighters in Libya were able to retake a stronghold in Derna from Daesh control, though they claim this is only a minor setback and doesn't effect their operational abilities in the Islamic Maghreb. They clearly aren't fucking around as the last few weeks have had headlines detailing their recent gun attack on a Tunisian beach, Tunisian SF have only just foiled yet another Daesh plot.

This is what a terrorist attack looks like


In addition to these attacks, Daesh has also been busy elsewhere. The United States recently launched a drone strike that took out a bunch of their leadership in Afghanistan, fucking up Shahidullah Shahid and about 30 other insurgents in a compound near the Pakistani border. Shahid was part of the Pakistani Taliban faction who splintered off to join Daesh in Afghanistan.  


Syria

Syria's having a whole lot of not fun right now. A much older post I wrote chronicles how Syria got to where it is, and it hasn't been much better since then.

Map of Syria, 8 Days before my previously linked post was originally published
Map of Syria, as of last week

Interestingly enough, around the time of the previously linked piece on Syria, there was a whole bunch of shit going around about the chemical attacks taking place in the country. The international conversation was "Was it al-Assad? Was it a rebel group?" and "Should we intervene? Does it really matter who it was, doesn't this need to stop, no matter who did it?" Most people in America, who were only then just tuning in, thought this was a fairly rational response, and their politicians were looking out for a people being slaughtered far away. A lot of the national conversation going on was "Should we get involved, even with all of this?" Most people did not want another war in the middle east, and Putin made Obama look like a bitch on the national stage.

I, however, was rather convinced we didn't give a shit about anyone in this country and we only wanted to position ourselves geopolitically to expand our sphere of influence and impede on Russia's, who has a port in Syria. 

Given how big of a stink this was in the media, I was at first surprised, then full of contempt when I read about the recent attacks in Deir ez Zor. Here was Assad's forces, fighting Daesh and Jabhat al-Nusra in the highly contested city, actually openly using chemical agents that killed civilians. And the world has said nary a peep about it. Unless the climate is right for a nation to exploit a situation for their own benefit, nobody is going to give a shit. Always keep that in mind when reading "news". 

Next time: Kurdistan and Turkey.

Friday, July 3, 2015

China's Stock Bubble

In the last three weeks China's stock market has dropped by about 25%. Thats roughly $2.36 trillion dollars, or ten times the GDP of Greece. Its a metric fuck-ton of money.


China's stock market is still up about 20% from the beginning of the year.  Due to the massive growth we see in the graph above the law of averages states that a "balancing" was in order. The question is how much more their stock market will drop and how that effects us. Analysts predict it could drop another 35%  which would be roughly another trillion dollars.

So how does that affect us? Well;
"What happens in China will turn out to be far more consequential than any sting that Greece may deliver over the coming weeks or months,'' said Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong. "As China's equity markets lose their roar, the risk is that demand more broadly on the Mainland could take a hit. That would knock out an essential engine of world demand over the past decade. As dramatic as events in Greece currently appear, however, ultimately, it's difficult to see these proving decisive for the world economy.''

China has been pushing hard to develop as hard as could to modernize and get on equal foot with the rest of the world. That may slow or stop, hurting businesses and industries that have building China's infrastructure.

"Study strategy over the years and achieve the spirit of the warrior. Today is victory over yourself of yesterday; tomorrow is your victory over lesser men." - Miyamoto Musashi