Thor's Quick Guide to WTF Is Going On in Syria? [Republished!]

[NOTE- This was originally written and published 22 months ago today, on August 30 2013 at 1324 hours. It has been preserved in its original form, to preserve both accuracy and serve as a record of my writing and linguistic stylings, as well as my thought process and understanding of the situation. This also started an argument between myself and Blue Djinn, which started with the phrase "illegally occupying the Golan Heights my ass" and kept going from there. Israel is something we know we don't see eye to eye on, but can agree to disagree, because we're fucking gentlemen like that. ]

The whole Syria thing is a clusterfuck, and I'm trying to figure all of it out. Correct me if I'm wrong, and point me towards whatever resources may help clarify who what where and why with this whole thing. All of your news is either propaganda or bullshit, so lets just look at the facts, and the motives each of the nations has. There really aren't any 'good guys' or 'bad guys' in this situation, and almost everything you'll read on this subject is heavily slanted in one direction. American propaganda is gearing up to justify a war with Syria and Iran, while Russian propaganda is gearing up to justify a war in Saudi Arabia. Anyway, this is my understanding of how this all came to be:

Let’s start with Syria's independence after the Second World War. They literally couldn't hold on to a leader, with generals and leaders being ousted and deposed all the time. This instability lead people to oppose the government and demand reforms. Now, Egypt became all buddy-buddy with the USSR after the USA was pissed they recognized the PRC. There was something about a dam, and the Egyptians tried to nationalize the Suez Canal, and that lead to another Arab-Israeli war. Syria was involved in this, attacking Israel from the North. Because they were friends with Egypt, and Egypt was friends with USSR, Syria and USSR became great friends. The Russians gave Syria a bunch of weapons and other cool shit for allowing them to spread their influence in the region (and this pissed off Turkey, who doesn't like Syria). Around 1958, Syria and Egypt were like "Hey! Let’s blanda upp and become one country!" A lot of the political parties of Syria didn't like that, and they had to all stop what they were doing and do shit in secret.

Ah, Polandball.

Hafez al-Assad, Bashar's father, was one of those guys. He and his military buddies made a super-awesome secret club for the Ba'ath party. Baathists are socialists who advocate for a single Arab state, free of imperialist (re: Western) influence, and were somewhat secularist (but also Sunni Muslims). So the Syrian Government gets overthrown (again!) and these guys take over. It was the 1963 coup, and then the government was all "Aw shit! We're in a state of Emergency! Let’s suspend the constitution and everybody's rights!" And it stayed like that for 48 years (Don't worry, America. I'm sure the state of Emergency you've been in since 9/11 will pass soon and you'll have your rights back any day now! You're different than these people!)

So if we've learned anything from history, it’s that it repeats itself, which it does in Syria. There are, once again, multiple coups and shit, and eventually the Baath party splinters into two factions: The Iraqi one that Saddam belonged to, and the Syrian one Hafez al-Assad belonged to.

When the Baath party took power, it outlawed the other parties. So now the Kurds, the hardline Muslim Brotherhood guys, religious minorities, didn't have political parties or influence. That really pissed off a lot of people, and the Muslim Brotherhood had a bunch of armed uprisings as a result. In fact, in 1980 being a member of the Muslim Brotherhood could mean death for you. Yeah, Assad killed people like that. So they fought back, and in 1982 the Hama Uprising began, and Hafez al-Assad sent a bunch of troops to siege the city. Between 10-40,000 people died. 

So as you can see, Syria wasn't THAT great a place to be, but it also wasn't that bad. It was a secular government, not some Muslim shit hole. It was possible to survive being a Shia or a Christian or a Jew. But people wanted their rights and an end to the Martial Law. 

So fast forward to 2000. Hafez al-Assad dies, and his son, Bashar, runs in the election unopposed. The Damascus Spring happens, but nothing comes of it and Assad suppresses the movement. As we can see, it takes a few times and a few uprisings to get shit into gear to get your rights back (so the 'failure' of OWS and the Tea Party movements aren't failures, but shows that we in America are on the right track). This kind of shit goes on until 2010, when something magical happens!

The Arab Spring begins in December 2010, and spreads to Syria quickly. In March 2011, about 15 teenagers are arrested and beaten by cops. The people didn't like this shit, and started a bunch of protests. Around the same time, there were protests around the funeral of someone who died in the Syrian Army, supposedly from an electric shock, but it was rumored he was tortured by security forces. So basically, Syria was as bad, the kind of bad the USA is heading for.

Assad cracks down, and that pisses off the international community, and the people. More people die, and get angry. He sees "Well shit, this isn't working, I guess I better do some reforming." He replaces his entire cabinet, begins reforms, and even was set to repeal the martial law. After that, though, he said there would be no grounds for the continued massive protests, and would consider the opposition "sabotage" if they continued.

The protesters at this point were more focused on getting Assad out of power than they were at the reforms. Although anti-government protests drew crowds, the pro-Assad rallies drew bigger ones at first. And then the fighting starts, and BOOM! Civil war.  

So who is on what side? Syria is a key position in the Mediterranean, so them being friends with Russia is really, really good for Russia. And as we can see, historically Syria and Russia are pretty tight, like they are with Egypt. Israel hates them, and they want their historic Israel and are taking it by force from Palestine. They also illegally occupy Syria's Golan Heights, which has natural resources they are just going to take. 

Speaking of resources, the Caspian Sea has tons of oil, and there's a pipeline that takes it through Turkey, to the Mediterranean, and down to Israel, to get through the Gulf of Aqaba (the body of water on the other side of the Sinai Peninsula from Suez). From there it goes to Asia. This makes Turkey and Israel lots of sheckles. So Israel does not like Syria, and is invading their land, pillaging for resources, and trying to keep the conflict there going to prevent oil from flowing elsewhere (cough Syria cough Iran cough cough). Also involved in this tangled little web of conflict is a little organization called Hezbollah, based in Lebanon. They have taken the side of Assad, and fight for the government of Syria in the civil war. They're also better known for attacking Israel for being Israel. Hezbollah is backed by Iran, and Iran is friendly to Assad. They're kinda in a serious bromance. It’s so serious, that an attack on Syria is an attack on Iran. 

We also have the Muslim Brotherhood involved. These guys were running the government of Egypt under President Morsi from 2012 until the military overthrew the government in July of this year and is currently being led by General Abdul Fatah al-Sisi.  So the Muslim Brotherhood no longer has the same power in Egypt that it did. The USA is friendly with the Muslim Brotherhood and was friendly with Morsi. We aren’t as friendly with Sisi. 

So far, we have Israel, USA and Turkey being friends. USA is friends with Muslim Brotherhood. Muslim Brotherhood, Turkey, Israel and USA support the rebels and getting Assad out of power. Iran is backing Assad against those powers, so Iran is against the USA and Israel (obviously). Here’s where it gets tricky:

We also have the oil producing Gulf States to think of (aka, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.). The Gulf States are against Assad.  That means they’re with the Muslim Brotherhood, right? WRONG. They’re also pro General Sisi, against the Muslim Brotherhood, but also friendly to the USA.

But you can’t forget about Hamas in this conflict! Hamas rules the Gaza Strip, and fucking HATES Israel. Iran backs Hamas. Hamas hates the USA, but also supports the Muslim Brotherhood because they are an offshoot of them.

Our ally Turkey is with the Gulf States against Assad. However, they also support the Muslim Brotherhood (who the Gulf States oppose) against General Sisi. Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, is also backed by Iran against Israel and the USA against rebel groups, meaning that Hezbollah is against al-Qaeda. The USA and al-Qaeda are ‘enemies’ but working together against Assad.

So Syria has (had?) plans for a new oil pipeline that would threaten the wealth that brings to our allies. A continuous conflict will prevent that from being built. It’s no coincidence that now there are dozens of nationalities fighting a jihad in Syria in what used to be a Civil War. Iran also wants to sell oil in gold, not dollars. The USA’s petrodollar system ensures everyone trades oil in dollars, requiring everyone to have dollars, driving up the demand and keeping the dollar strong no matter how shitty our economy is. There were a few other world leaders who wanted to do the same thing, but the United States killed them (like in Libya, when we killed Gaddafi the same year he was nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize because he wanted to switch to the Gold Dinar). Iran has started the Iranian Crude Oil Exchange, an exchange market specifically for trading oil in other currencies. 

This is not good for the USA, since our currency isn’t backed by gold anymore, but black gold. So we need a way into Iran. Hey, remember when we tried convincing the world they were gonna build a nuke? And wipe poor Israel off the map, even though Israel refuses to sign the NNPT and Iran is a member? And remember when the CIA and Mossad came out and said “Lol, they don’t have shit and aren’t trying to build any nukes” so we dropped the whole thing for a bit?

It was about this time last year they did that. That’s also when Obama started talkin’ about that “thin red line” that Assad shouldn’t cross. They talked and talked and talked about the possibility of Assad using chemical weapons. And if he did, we were gonna liberate the shit out of him like we did to Iraq. So Assad knows the ONE THING he shouldn’t do if he doesn’t want the USA to invade is use chemical weapons.

THEN, EARLIER THIS YEAR, CHEMICAL WEAPON WERE USED! But it wasn’t Assad who did it. As soon as it happened, American/Western media reported immediately Assad used chemical weapons. After a UN investigation, it was concluded that the rebels/terrorists who the USA is supporting used Chemical Weapons. This is still cited right now as proof Assad used chemical weapons. 

In July of 2011, the Syrian Army raided a rebel stronghold, and found tons of lab equipment and ingredients for chemical weapons. This was in Jobar, outside of Damascus.

On August 21, they were used again outside of Damascus. Again, Western Media immediately blamed Assad, and the USA continues to do so without any proof. We tried getting Britain involved, and they sent warships before their Parliament said “fuck no, we’re not going in there.” So the USA had been sending its fleet to the region, in preparation for this, especially before budget cuts force us to cut down on our presence in the region. So far, we have 5 missile cruisers and an unknown number of subs in the Mediterranean, and two Aircraft Carrier strike group in the Persian Gulf. Russia responded by sending a bunch of their shit to the port they control in Syria. Iran said if we attack Syria, Syria and Iran will turn Israel to glass. If they try doing that, the USA and Israel will attack Iran. Russia does not want the USA to attack Syria, and might step in. They claim they won’t with their words, but their actions say “back off or we’ll fuck you up.” The Saudis (friends of USA, enemies of Assad and Russia) offered Russia a bunch of natural gas and stuff to drop their support of Assad. They also said “hey, you got them Olympics coming up soon.  We control the Chechen terrorists who might do something to it. You should take our offer, it’d be a shame if anything happened…” which pissed off Putin immensely. So an attack on Iran might, in turn, cause retaliation attacks on the Allies of the USA, namely Israel and Saudi Arabia.

[Anyone else think it’s slightly odd that Boston was orchestrated by Chechen terrorists, whom our ‘friends’ the Saudis claim control over? Especially after the FBI straight up executed an unarmed, injured Ibragim Todashev?].

Evidence that the Aug. 21 attacks were done by Assad is shaky at best. Israel (who is against Assad!) claims that their wiretapping provided all the evidence. The USA is quick to try a build a coalition before the UN finishes their inspection, and are even talking of going in alone if need be. However, the side we support has been caught with chemical weapons before, and was just caught with the shit required to make them. And now, suddenly that they’ve been used, Assad did it? I’m not buying it.

So that’s the situation, folks. We have no real evidence that Assad did anything, the white house released something that would have gotten me a C in my sophomore year of high school as ‘evidence’, and the USA is trying to erase old cold war alliances and put in western-friendly forces instead so we can continue to control the oil.

I previously posted that the US was backing Kurdish forces fighting in Syria with airstrikes. The Kurds have recently been having great success in advancing on IS territory and dealing Daesh a decisive defeat when they took Kobani.

The Kurdish population Syria is mostly located in the North of the Country along the board with Turkey. They are separated into small groups, but as the YPG, Peoples' Protection Units, drive Daesh back, they unify them into one mass. Turkey is alarmed and worried that they will attempt to declare the northern chunk of Syria an independent Kurdish nation.

Now as a westerner, that doesnt seem so bad. The Middle East is a  shitshow and the Kurds are the only one stomping Daesh ass right now. The Iraqi Army runs away from any fight they get involved in, but the Kurds are hitting Daesh hard. So why not let them have a country?

The problem for us is that we are friends with Turkey, and Turkey sees the Kurds as a terrorist group. They have been engaged in a low level conflict with the PPK, Kurdish Workers Party, since 1984. But Kurds in general have wanted independence since the fall of the Ottoman empire. After all, the rest of the Middle East was split up into independent nations. Turkey in general is not a very hospitable place to be non-Turk. Just after the SCOTUS banned gay marriage bans in the US, there was a gay pride mach in Turkey. It was broken up with fire hoses and CS gas. Turkey is a autocratic nation where the Turks run it and to hell with anyone else. But they are also the 2nd largest armed force in NATO. Which is why we turn a blind eye to Turkish oppression. We want their support so bad we are willing to let the Turks push into Syria and destroy the YPG instead if Daesh. Which is exactly what they are planning to do in the immediate future.  

"Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer." - Sun Tzu

The Cost of Light Infantry

Warning! This post is not meant as an inflammatory or suggestion to do anything. It is merely to point out that in the Unites States, with few exceptions such as California, an individual can own all the same equipment necessary to act as a light infantryman. Also every item can be purchased over the internet (thats why some items appear more expensive than they should, Amazon sells in bulk). The below list makes up the absolute basic necessities to sustain for 72 hours and fight, with the ability to sustain for much, much longer given a resupply of water, food, and ammunition. I have not included communications equipment, or and sort of signaling capabilities due to too many variables. I understand that an individual cannot just buy a list of equipment and suddenly become a warrior. That requires a lot of training and the fiscal costs for that are not included in this list, though I may do a post that later. Training is by far more important and much more expensive.

On Person
x1 M4 Carbine $950                                               $950
x1 Vortex Strikefire II Red Dot $180                     $180
x1 IOTV with level III soft armor $190                 $190
x2 IV Plates $155                                                   $310
x1 ACH $165                                                          $165
x2 M4 Triple Mag Pouch $20                                 $40
x3 M4 Double Mag Pouch $15                               $45
x7 M4 Magazine $9                                                $63
x2 Grenade Pouch $7                                              $14
x2 1qt Canteen Pouch $15                                       $30
x2 1qt Canteen $8                                                    $16
x1 3L Camelback $40                                              $40
x1 Waist Pouch $20                                                 $20
x1 IFAK $45                                                            $45
x1 Tritium Lensatic Compass $90                           $90
x1 Red Lens Head Lamp $50                                  $50
x1 200rd battlepack 5.56mm $73                             $73
x1 C4T boots (if necessary) $120                             $120
                                                                                SBT $2441
In Assault Pack
 Assault Pack $70                                                  $70
 Poncho Liner $30                                                 $30
 Poncho $45                                                           $45
 Entrenching Tool Pouch $20                                $20
 Entrenching Tool $40                                           $40
 200rd battlepack 5.56mm $73                               $73
 CR2 Lithium Battery 6 pack (For Red Dot) $15   $15
 AA battery 20 pack $10                                        $10
 boot sock 3 pack $10                                            $10
                                                                               SBT$313
In Rucksack
 Rucksack $100                                                      $100
 Sleep System $170                                                $170
 Gen 1 Gortex Parka $80                                        $80
 Cold Weather Bottoms $20                                   $20
 Cold Weather Top $20                                          $20
 Weapon Cleaning Kit $13                                     $13
 Rem Oil $3                                                            $3
 200rd battlepack 5.56mm $73                               $73
 Baby Wipes 4 pack $10                                         $10
 Hand Sanitizer 3 pack $6                                       $6
 boot sock 3 pack $10                                             $10
x2 2qt Canteen with Pouch $17                              $34
 Wool Cold Weather Gloves $4                              $4
 Cool Weather Shooting Gloves $26                      $26
 Tan Tshirt 3 pack $20                                            $20
 Gallon ziploc bags $5                                             $5
 Small Trash bags, 4 gal $7                                     $7
100mph tape $7                                                       $7
100ft 550 Cord $16                                                 $16
Hygiene Kit $73                                                      $73
   Foot Powder $10
   tooth brush $3
   toothpaste $5
   Ibprofuen $9
   Moleskin $6
   Razor $12
   Shaving Cream $15
   Sunscreen $6
   Chapstick  $7
                                                                               SBT $697
                                                                             

x1 Box MRE  $88 (3 broken down in waist pouch, 3 in assault pack, 6 in ruck)

                                                                             Total $3539

$3539 is all it takes to act as a light infantryman for 72 hours, and longer if you have access to logistically resupply. This can be supplemented by additional equipment such as night vison (completely legal), radios, flares and other equipment to make operations easier.

But honestly 3500 dollars is chump change when it comes to buying ammo and targets to train and become proficient with other people. Thats where the real costs are.

"The supreme art of war is to subdue your enemy without fighting." - Sun Tzu

On Global Perspective

Humans are not good at thinking about the long term, and that's not good for our species. Responsible voters, responsible citizens, ought to train themselves to identify long-term problems that aren't immediately visible to themselves. It is the duty of every man and every woman to educate themselves on matters of their entire species, of their planet at large. Once upon a time, humans lived in isolated tribes, which with agriculture allowed cities and towns, countries, kingdoms, nations, entire peoples. They all had some neighbors, with whom they always traded with and went to war with. We didn't know what our entire planet looked like. Our history has always looked like this, with each group of humans hypothesizing divine creation in isolation in the cosmos. Ever model in history we have is based off of this.

However, limiting ourselves to short-term thinking is a luxury we no longer have. As our planet becomes increasingly unified, we understand with international travel that the emergence of a deadly disease (like Ebola, H1N1, MERS, SARS, etc) has the ability to spread much more rapidly. Things that could once wipe out only a community, can now pose a threat to entire species.

It is the same with economies. Greece falling might trigger Spain or Italy to fall, then Ireland, and Portugal, and then France, and finally Germany. Once all of Europe has fallen, the chain reaction can sustain itself across our ever so connected global economy. 

I get it. We're wired to respond to threats when you're at a cafe in a Shia neighborhood and a bunch of angry young Sunnis start screaming and go pop. You're wired to respond to threats like when an airplane gets flown into a tower a nuclear plant is leaking radioactive waste into the ocean. But we don't see the large, abstract threats. It's why we saw everything leading up to the 2008 crash, and many people recognized it for what it was, but everyone kept at it, business as usual, until the inevitable happened. Why? Because it wasn't an immediate, tangible threat. 

While many will look at Greece and dismiss is at as irrelevant, far away land, the fact is that no matter where you are in the world, the actions this country takes can and will effect you. And no matter how much you know this, or don't know this, you have to understand that on some level, you aren't wired to handle this. Our species has not had to face problems on such a scale before, at any time in their existence. The worst disease we ever knew of, the Black Death, only wiped out people on one continent, long before the age of automobiles and airplanes. 

We are not wired to think about, or even address problems such as this one:

The kind of problems we face now are truly unique, there is nothing in our histories, in our stories of Gods and Heroes, that can show us the way, because no civilization in our history has faced the problems we are coming upon. We are pioneers of our own right, treading into an unknown, where the decisions we make will reverberate throughout time. For all we know, several civilizations of ours have made it to this point before, and making the wrong decision as one society can mean consequences for our entire species.

I can't stand hippies any more. I hear so much bullshit and drivel from them about how we are "one species" and we need more of a "one consciousness", which largely comes out to being Marxist indoctrination wrapped up in new age feel good bullshit [I need to find a better synonym for bullshit here], yet they're incapable of actually being anything they espouse with such a passion. Change requires sacrifice. Change requires effort. For most of our species existence, change required a large body count.

Be wary of anyone who merely talks about global idealism, and stresses the importance of it, without being able to actually practice it. To really adopt the identity of a global species, we have to pay attention to events that happen across our entire planet. We ought to know what wars are going on, and why. We should know how the game of politics and geopolitics is played.

Part of our responsibility as citizens is identifying what we, as a species, do well and not well, and to face uncomfortable truths. From those truths, we take action. It's time for our species to take a critical look at itself, in a new light, and actually try to forge a way forward in a way that will preserve the species, to preserve life, in the long term. It's not how we're wired to think, but it's how we have to train ourselves to think to survive a globalized, connected world. We have to turn our attention to problems that are slow burns, rather than huge explosions.

South American Dragon

I’ve touched before on China’s growing in influence in South America. For the last few years a Chinese Billionaire, Wang Jing, has been planning on building a new canal through Nicaragua to compete with the Panama Canal. Now, it has finally broken ground and begun constructing roads to get heavy machinery into the jungle.

Now why does China want to build a new canal? The Panama Canal is much shorter, can already handle all but the largest of ships and is going through a $5 Billion dollar expansion.  Construction of a new canal in Nicaragua is drawing harsh criticism from the environmental community. By all accounts the damage to the ecosystem in Nicaragua, one of the world’s most diverse and sensitive ecosystems, would be severe.  The route would go through Lake Nicaragua, a massive inland fresh water lake. The mixing of salt water into the environment would damage habitats. Lake Nicaragua is only 50ft deep on average. The lake would need to be dredged to 90ft to be deep enough, exposing heavy metals in the silt to marine life. Besides destroying wildlife preserves up to 100,000 people may be displaced as China will effectively gain control over large swaths of the country to build the canal itself and support infrastructure. Many citizens who used to die hard supporters for President Daniel Ortega and fought for him in the 70s and 80s are outraged. It could possibly lead to civil war in Nicaragua.

So why are they building this canal? It doesn’t seem like the benefits outweigh the drawbacks. The canal is expected to cost $50 billion dollars and not be finished until 2020. Most analysts don’t even think it will be competitive enough with the Panama Canal to produce a profit. The canal would have to generate $5 Billion dollars a year to be productive. As of 2014 the Panama Canal only generates $2 billion a year. A small benefit to Nicaragua is they will build two deep water ports, of which the country has none, and will hopefully create 250,000 jobs.

But Nicaragua isn’t trying the build the canal, China is. So far it is not publically acknowledged that the Chinese government is supporting the construction, but it’s not unreasonable to think it is. In the past China proved I was willing to be the aggressor in the Sino-Indian war because the benefits of gained territory and showing the world they were the big kid on the block outweighed loss in political capital on the world stage. So if China thinks there is something important to gain they will sacrifice money and burn down a rain forest to get it.

Geopolitically, the canal would further strengthen China’s foothold in South America. China’s trade with the continent increased from $12 billion in 2000 to $250 billion in 2012. It is a major buyer of Venezuelan oil and gas and Brazilian iron ore. The Nicaraguan canal would transport super-tankers capable of carrying 2.3 million barrels of oil EACH, too big for Panama. China has been massively investing in South America in return for its natural resources power its economy. Being on the other side of the world, those resources get to China one of two ways; they go through the Panama or the Suez Canal. If China fights a conflict in the South China Sea the route through the Suez Canal would be closed. It’s not impossible to imagine that the US could close the Panama Canal to China if they wanted to. From this perspective I can slightly understand why China might want to build their own canal that can take even more materials than the Panama Canal. But to me it doesn’t seem worth the $50 billion dollars.

 

 

I think it’s a $50 billion dollar investment to buy a foot hold in South America. China has been selling arms to South American countries for years now and has become the 3^rd largest arms dealer in the world. China plans its strategy out years in advance. It has also recently announced that it intends to increase the size of its navy to 351 ships, larger than the US navy.  Building this canal gives them the excuse to build to deep water ports and the influence to station their growing navy there. This would allow them to project power right into the United State’s back yard. They can lock down the South China Sea with air power from the Senkaku Islands and land based missiles, and send most of their warships to South America, making them a true super power.

States Rights

So if the Supreme Court can rule that none of the 50 states can ban gay marriage then can it rule that none of the 50 states can ban the sale and carry of firearms? How can a constitutionally guaranteed right be regulated and banned, but something the constitution says nothing about can be forced on all 50 states? This bears striking similarities to the beginning of the War of Northern Aggression.

Dashing Eagle 15

It turns out we are not the only country that cross trains with out nations armed forces. China recently sent an Airborne Special Operation Company to train with Belarus for "anti-terrorist" missions. And it turns out this is not a new thing, having been previously held in 2011 and 2012. Looks like we aren't the only on with interests in the region.

And coming in September we get Operation Union Shield between Russia and Belarus. But its ok, its purely defensive according to Belarus's military's website. After all, according to Sputnik, a Russian propaganda news site, NATO is clearly the aggressor. 

Because Russia has never staged a military exercise on a nation's border to make a point....

After all, they are only casually drilling 80,000 Soldiers. Not like when they drilled 150,000 soldiers on Europes' doorstep.

We may exercise more often, but Russia drills more Soldiers.

The message seems clear. Dont intervene in Ukraine.

US backs Kurdish forces in Syria

This is big news that bears watching. If we really have backed the Kurds then Turkey is going to be pissed. I have no problem backing the Kurds and think they are the only ones doing any good in this fight, but pissing off one of our biggest allies in the region will have repercussions. I wonder how this will turn out.

The Sun Never Sets on the Chinese Empire

The Age of Imperialism is over. But only for the Western powers. Last February Russia annexed Crimea. But more importantly the Chinese annexed several islands in the South China Sea, the Diaoyu or Senkaku islands depending on which nation you talk to. They have being building the islands into fortified airstrips because they are too far behind the aircraft carrier curve to go toe to toe with us. But you cant sink an island.

But that's not the only expansionist actions China has taken recently. China is sinking its talons into South America as we speak. Ecuador is so in debt to China its selling 8 million hectares of the Amazon rain forest to Chinese oil companies. Ecuador owes China $7 billion dollars, which doesn't sound like much, until you realize that is 10% of their entire GDP.

Between 2008 and 2012 China lent over $80 billion dollars to South American countries. Consider that an investment. China's economy is growing so vast that it cannot sustain itself with its own raw materials. Its looking to essentially buy third world nations so it has access to all the resources its needs.

But its not just South America. China has become Africa's biggest trading partner trading $160 billion in goods a year.

China is developing third world nations all around the world in order to provide a steady stream of resources to its growing industrial machine. But it also needs food an land. China has the largest population on the planet.

China and Russia have recently signed a deal giving 300,000 hectares of agricultural land for about 24 billion Rubles for 49 years. This land is located in Russia's Federal District of the Far East.

 Th Far Eastern district is the largest district in Russia at 2,400,000 sq mi. It also has the lowest population at approximately 7 million Russian citizens on the last census. I specify Russian citizens because there are thought to be 2-5 million illegal Chinese workers in the region. This presents an interesting dilemma. With the lease of the land the Chinese also want to push for easier access to the region for Chinese workers. If enough Chinese move into the region to the point were the Chinese Government feels the need to protect them, they may steal the Russians play from Crimea and annex the region. After all, one of the most valuable things to China right now is land.

From Russia with Love, Fear, and Pride

Thor asked me to guest write some articles from a military point of view. Today were going to take a look at the Ukrainian conflict with regards to logistics and finances.

Russia recently announced it was adding 40 new nuclear ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) to its arsenal this year. Now while 40 ICBMs may not sound like alot we need to take a step back and look at the big picture.

In 1970 the NPT (non-proliferation of nuclear weapons treaty) was signed.At the time it was signed by 40 Nation States and boiled down to three major pillars. They were non-proliferation, disarmament, and the right to peacefully use nuclear technology. The ultimate goal is the complete elimination of nuclear arsenals. Today 190 Nations have signed and ratified it with only four refusing to sign it and one withdrawn. Three of the four are nuclear powers, Israel, Pakistan, India. The other is South Sudan. The one nation who has withdrawn from the agreement in 2003 is North Korea. But both Russia and China are members of the NPT.

And thats why this is a big deal. Of the five nuclear powers involved in the treaty, Russia and China are both actively building new nuclear weapons while the United States is actively reducing the amount of nuclear weapons in its arsenal. Now don't take that as a war cry to build more nukes. The point is to take a look at the mindset of our potential enemies. And enemies they may be one day, China has publicly stated it would nuke the US if it defended Taiwan in a conflict and the Russians have threatened to use nukes if the NATO attempts to return Crimea to Ukraine.

According to Arms Control Association, the 2015 number of nuclear weapons are as follows:

China: About 250 total warheads. 

France: 290 deployed warheads. 

Russia: According to the March 2015 New START numbers, Russia has 1,582 strategic warheads deployed on 515 ICBMs, SLBMs, and strategic bombers [1]. The Federation of American Scientists estimates Russia has several thousand nondeployed strategic warheads and approximately 2,000 tactical nuclear warheads. An additional 3,700 are awaiting dismantlement.

United Kingdom: About 120 strategic warheads, of which no more than 40 are deployed at sea at any given time. The total stockpile is up to 225 weapons.

United States: According to the March 2015 New START declaration, the United States has 1,597 strategic nuclear warheads deployed on 785 ICBMs, SLBMs, and strategic bombers [1].  The Federation of American Scientists estimates that the United States' nondeployed strategic arsenal is approximately 2,800 warheads and the U.S. tactical nuclear arsenal numbers 500 warheads. In total, the U.S. has about 4,800 nuclear warheads [2], including tactical, strategic, and nondeployed weapons. Additional warheads are retired and await dismantlement.

Now here is where we break away for a moment and talk logistics. As of 2014 the US is spending $620 billion dollars on defense. 

Remember these numbers are in BILLIONS of dollars

Now that $620 billion comes out to roughly 16% of our entire budget. If you look at the table above, you will see we spend more on Social Security, and almost as much on Health Care, Medicare, and Income Security. This is a MASSIVE amount to spend on defense, and is why our military makes us the ONLY super power in the world (I'll explain that one a different day in another article).

This is why we're a superpower

As of 2015 Russia's military budget is 3.03 TRILLION Rubles. As of today that converts to $56 billion dollars US. When Russia annexed Crimea in February of 2014 the exchange rate was 36 rubles to the dollar. That would have made their military budget approximately $84 billion dollars. Suddenly the drop in oil prices makes a lot more sense, as Russia's GDP has dropepd by 2.4%. At $56 billion Russia only spends approximately 9% what the US spends on the defense. With the entire Russian budget being 15.3 trillion Rubles, they are spending approximately 20% of their entire budget on defense, and still are only able to spend a tenth of what we do.

So this should show us exactly why the Russians are so willing to throw nukes around. They're scared of us. They are the largest country in the world, and have to defend it with a total of 750,000 active duty soldiers. They see our alliance with NATO and the installation of a missile shield in Europe as western aggression.

I remember growing up and reading about the cold war. US planners were bracing for the day hordes of Russian tanks would pour through the Fulda gap and crawl over Europe. We expected to be out numbered and would possibly have to use tactical nukes to stem the tide. The Apache helicopter was designed for the sole purpose of killing Russian tanks and evening the odds. But now days the situation is reversed. We outspend the Russians alone, without NATO. By preconditioning equipment in Europe all we have to do is fly soldiers in to man the equipment and start rolling. The Russians see us as an aggressor and treat us accordingly.

Luckily, because of this it means that a full scale war in Europe is basically impossibly unless we push the Russians into a corner. And if they get pushed into that corner you can bet they will use nukes.

You know that Ukrainian boat that exploded off the coast of Mariupol two weeks ago?

GO. INTO. THE WATER. LIVE THERE. DIE THERE.

Well, the Japanese media is calling it a mine that was strategically placed. And Moscow is 
claiming it was a separatist made bomb that blew up as the crew tried pulling the object aboard. I also learned I need to get better at following up on rapidly evolving current events if I talk about them on here, for your sake, reader, and my sake, Future Thor, when you're looking through these old archives for something.

Ebola's not Over; Cause of Ebola Outbreak Recently Identified

It looks like patient zero of the deadliest ebola outbreak in human history has been identified. (Although, this should not be confused with the outbreak in the DRC, from Aug-Nov of last year. Though simultaneous to the other current outbreak, this strain and outbreak has been determined unrelated to the West African one.) Doctors have traced the virus back to a toddler who played with a fruit bat in late 2013, dying in early December of unidentified causes. His mother, sister and grandmother would soon follow in his footsteps, with villagers from neighboring villages coming in to pay respects to his grandmother. In spite of the fact she not patient zero, this funeral would wind up being the catalyst that lead to the deadly outbreak. Funerals in West Africa are "superspreader" events for such diseases, so much so that 60% of all the reported case in Guinea stem directly from a funeral. Many who attended that funeral died from it in the following weeks after bringing it to their own villages.

Washing the nightmares away

How does ebola kill you?

It isn't fucking pleasant, this disease is literally nightmare fuel. Ebola gives you EHF, Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever. This starts out by having the virus attack our immune system and kill off your t-lymphocytes, or t-cells, the same thing AIDS does. The virus releases proteins that stop your immune system from sending out anti-bodies. Then it gets into your collagen.

Those are ready to pop, and full of ebola.

I don't know how well you know biology, but collagen is important, making up 25-35% of all the protein in your body. It's all the fibers that make up connective tissue. If you've ever dissected a mammal in a biology class, you know how much fucking connective tissue we have. Every square inch of skin has connective tissue on the bottom of it, keeping it in your insides. Your muscles all have connective tissue, your tendons are made out of connective tissue. You can hydrolize it to make gelatin. You can also boil horses to harvest their collagen for glue, which is where the name comes from (κόλλα, or colla-, greek for glue, and γεν, or -gen, for "producing").

So ebola hangs out in your collagen and eats it. So now your entire skin is barely hanging on, instead of being anchored down, it's floating on a small layer of liquefied collagen remnants. Your entire skin breaks out in red and white blisters that can be ripped open with almost no effort. And of course, they're full of ebola-laden fluids. Parts of you just start to rip open. This is why people bleeding out of the mouth, nose, ears, gums, and all other orifices is common.

What's left of your immune system will cause coagulation in your blood, leading to clots getting stuck in tons of small capillaries are vessels. Not only does this lead to blockages, it causes many of them to burst. Your fever is awful, your body is ripping itself apart, and you're just having a bad time at this point.

But wait, there's more!

Once the virus makes it's way into your organs, it REALLY gets down to trying to kill you. Your blood stops coagulating once the damages are done, because ebola will destroy the glands in the liver required for making coagulants and plasma. It attacks your adrenal glands, which can no longer produce the steroids to regulate blood pressure. Your cells are dying and sloughing off, in both an uncontrollable diarrhea consisting of regular diarrhea AND the liquefied remains of the dead parts of your GI tract, and vomiting the same piling up in your stomach. Your skin is falling off, as is parts of the inside of you esophagus. It is said the most painful part of ebola is when the skin on your tongue sloughs off. By now, your blood hasn't coagulated because you can't make the proteins for it, and your blood cells are bursting at the seams with the virus, so everywhere you've begun to bleed out of, you just don't stop. That's when you die.

This brings us back to the tradition of funerals in West Africa. It often includes practices like washing the body, touching the body, or even kissing the body. Some affected cultures, like the Kissi, believe in certain parts of the natural cycle of life and death, and believe that burying a mother with a dead, unborn fetus disrupts such a cycle. Removing the fetus is the only culturally acceptable thing to do here, but the medical professionals insisted that it was unnecessary and way too dangerous to attempt, due to the body being an ebola bomb. 

Although in this situation, a compromise was worked out with a witch doctor who sacrificed a goat, oil, salt and kola nuts, it was an unnecessary step in separating the dead from the living; yet as an outcome, it was the exception. Medical workers trying to fight the outbreak have been routinely attacked and even killed for trying to fight this outbreak, where villagers would then flee like terrified animals into the jungle with their loved yet infected ones. Traditions were upkept, the outbreak would continue.

Last October, USSOUTHCOM put this out, stating that they were worried that an outbreak in the Americas would prove deadly and overwhelming for the United States. They specifically named human trafficking rings from West Africa who take people to the Caribbean as a massive threat. The disease, should it spread to  the Caribbean or to Central America, would leave a horde of immigrants clamoring their way up to our country. The infection wouldn't be the biggest of our worries at that point.

Also, the infection hasn't ended yet. Though Nigeria, Liberia and Senegal have declared the outbreak officially eradicated (it has been over 40 days since the last infection took place, well outside the 21 days incubation period), it's still ravaging Guinea and Sierra Leone. Sierra Leone has imposed a curfew designed to keep people indoors 12 hours a day, enforced by soldiers, so that people cannot continue to smuggle things, especially bodies they want to bury, and continue to propagate the infection. Just because our media isn't talking about it and using the outbreak and the disappearance of MH370 has major, distractifying stories, doesn't mean it's still going on. 

Until the outbreak is completely contained, we can fall back to square one at any time, where thousands of new infections are taking place every day.

Battle Footage from Marinka

Heavy Clashes Continue in the Battle for Maryinka

This is what war looks like in the age of smartphones and 1080p cameras that fit in your pocket.

Neat.

Eye in the Sky

"Dude, you know what I'm thinking?" my roommate asked me at about 12:30 this afternoon. We had just finished the second episode of Season 4 of Lost, which we have been binge watching on Netflix. After I got home from doing errands early this morning, we shot the shit a little bit, talked about how Christopher Lee, the world's best movie badguy, World War veteran who taught Peter Jackson what someone sounds like when you stab them and fucking metal musician, had died, and finished Season 3 of Lost. It was lunch time. "Let's go to Bosa for breakfast sandwiches!" My Monster was wearing off and I was getting hungry, so breakfast sammiches sounded pretty awesome. We took a few minutes finding our keys like we usually do, and walked out to our parking lot. It was bright, and kinda warm. I expected a bit hotter from Phoenix for this time of year, to be perfectly honest. Though it has been a few years since I lived in the desert, the summer doesn't feel as hot as it used to. And Flagstaff's last two winters definitely hasn't been as cold.

When we had our typical "Should we walk or should we drive?" discussion on our way to walking out the apartment complex, and we both took note of how it was hot, but not quite hot enough for this time of year. But we only walked for two minutes before I spotted a firetruck in my complex. The lights were flashing. Shit, did anything happen? we both seemed to wonder at the same time. We didn't stop for long, but we barely walked another 20 feet before I spotted 3 squad cars further up. Something was definitely wrong.We kept walking, only to find an uncomfortably higher amount of squad cars, and yellow tape cordoning off part of the parking lot. Something was going on, but we didn't see any ambulances. Just fire, and LOTS of police.

What the hell was going on? we wondered as we crossed the street on our way to Bosa. No amount of police activity was going to excite me enough to not want to get food. I'm American, god damn it, it's in my DNA. We're known and celebrated eaters. The the sausage-egg-bacon bagel was calling my name.

And more and more police cars were coming out way. From all angles, too. The entire walk consisted of my roommate and I speculating on what was going on. When two SUV's labelled for Immigration sped past us to go cut off a parking lot, we assumed it was an ICE raid in our apartment. The low whir of a helicopter overhead reminded me of my childhood, where every weekend featured a helicopter with a spotlight on a manhunt. Something was definitely up.

One time, they crashed and everyone died on live TV.

Despite the fact that my apartment complex was swarming with cops, a cordoned off crime scene, tons of emergency vehicles from multiple law enforcement agencies, it was just another day in the Phoenix metro area. Luck of the draw, I guessed, this time it happened close to me. No, nothing really disturbed me until the air traffic arrived. Now, everyone knows what their local news helicopters look like. They market the shit outta that. Local news is big business, with big audiences. They aggressively market their products, and they're gonna make damn sure if you look up in the sky while one of their flying machines is up there, you're gonna know which channel owns it. 

Squad cars, fire trucks, inmigración, concerned onlookers; everything was going to plan. Sure, something fucked up happened, but it was being corrected. Everything was right, until the helicopters came. They hovered in place over where we were, which means clearly they were looking for someone on foot. It's nothing new, nothing I haven't seen. 

But it wasn't a police helicopter. Nor was it a news helicopter.  

Black, red and orange, it was devoid of any sort of logo. It was clearly not meant to advertise a news agency, as I got a good look at it looking for a logo. It was not the typical colors of a police helicopter either, and was not identified as a police helicopter to the public. 

After a few minutes of watching the bird in the sky and deliberating our theories about the situation at hand, we decided to finally go in for our delicious breakfasty goodness that is Bosa. In the last 10 seconds we were outside, I witnessed yet another helicopter come swooping into the area. It was much smaller than the regular choppers you see associated with the news and police, and all white with some green writing I couldn't quite make out on the side. Again, no news logos, no police logos. 

Anyway, it wound up being some kind of stabbing involving people in a drug deal. 

Stab people all you want, you're still a manlet.

You can slice it any way you want, but when the government starts hiding the things that it does in plain sight, or doing it in a misleading way, there's reason to be worried or afraid. An open, honest, transparent government has no need of this kind of behavior. I wanted to take a picture of the choppers, but I left my phone at home. I think that might have been the right choice given some things the FBI has recently admitted to doing with civilian marked helicopters.

These are the types of flight patterns that people are noticing

on online flight trackers. This one was clearly scoping out a few

specific spots, and hilariously came out looking kinda like a 

giant dick. 

But I'm just some dude writing his observations. Draw you own conclusions.