From Russia with Love, Fear, and Pride

Thor asked me to guest write some articles from a military point of view. Today were going to take a look at the Ukrainian conflict with regards to logistics and finances.

Russia recently announced it was adding 40 new nuclear ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) to its arsenal this year. Now while 40 ICBMs may not sound like alot we need to take a step back and look at the big picture.

In 1970 the NPT (non-proliferation of nuclear weapons treaty) was signed.At the time it was signed by 40 Nation States and boiled down to three major pillars. They were non-proliferation, disarmament, and the right to peacefully use nuclear technology. The ultimate goal is the complete elimination of nuclear arsenals. Today 190 Nations have signed and ratified it with only four refusing to sign it and one withdrawn. Three of the four are nuclear powers, Israel, Pakistan, India. The other is South Sudan. The one nation who has withdrawn from the agreement in 2003 is North Korea. But both Russia and China are members of the NPT.

And thats why this is a big deal. Of the five nuclear powers involved in the treaty, Russia and China are both actively building new nuclear weapons while the United States is actively reducing the amount of nuclear weapons in its arsenal. Now don't take that as a war cry to build more nukes. The point is to take a look at the mindset of our potential enemies. And enemies they may be one day, China has publicly stated it would nuke the US if it defended Taiwan in a conflict and the Russians have threatened to use nukes if the NATO attempts to return Crimea to Ukraine.

According to Arms Control Association, the 2015 number of nuclear weapons are as follows:

China: About 250 total warheads. 

France: 290 deployed warheads. 

Russia: According to the March 2015 New START numbers, Russia has 1,582 strategic warheads deployed on 515 ICBMs, SLBMs, and strategic bombers [1]. The Federation of American Scientists estimates Russia has several thousand nondeployed strategic warheads and approximately 2,000 tactical nuclear warheads. An additional 3,700 are awaiting dismantlement.

United Kingdom: About 120 strategic warheads, of which no more than 40 are deployed at sea at any given time. The total stockpile is up to 225 weapons.

United States: According to the March 2015 New START declaration, the United States has 1,597 strategic nuclear warheads deployed on 785 ICBMs, SLBMs, and strategic bombers [1].  The Federation of American Scientists estimates that the United States' nondeployed strategic arsenal is approximately 2,800 warheads and the U.S. tactical nuclear arsenal numbers 500 warheads. In total, the U.S. has about 4,800 nuclear warheads [2], including tactical, strategic, and nondeployed weapons. Additional warheads are retired and await dismantlement.

Now here is where we break away for a moment and talk logistics. As of 2014 the US is spending $620 billion dollars on defense. 

Remember these numbers are in BILLIONS of dollars

Now that $620 billion comes out to roughly 16% of our entire budget. If you look at the table above, you will see we spend more on Social Security, and almost as much on Health Care, Medicare, and Income Security. This is a MASSIVE amount to spend on defense, and is why our military makes us the ONLY super power in the world (I'll explain that one a different day in another article).

This is why we're a superpower

As of 2015 Russia's military budget is 3.03 TRILLION Rubles. As of today that converts to $56 billion dollars US. When Russia annexed Crimea in February of 2014 the exchange rate was 36 rubles to the dollar. That would have made their military budget approximately $84 billion dollars. Suddenly the drop in oil prices makes a lot more sense, as Russia's GDP has dropepd by 2.4%. At $56 billion Russia only spends approximately 9% what the US spends on the defense. With the entire Russian budget being 15.3 trillion Rubles, they are spending approximately 20% of their entire budget on defense, and still are only able to spend a tenth of what we do.

So this should show us exactly why the Russians are so willing to throw nukes around. They're scared of us. They are the largest country in the world, and have to defend it with a total of 750,000 active duty soldiers. They see our alliance with NATO and the installation of a missile shield in Europe as western aggression.

I remember growing up and reading about the cold war. US planners were bracing for the day hordes of Russian tanks would pour through the Fulda gap and crawl over Europe. We expected to be out numbered and would possibly have to use tactical nukes to stem the tide. The Apache helicopter was designed for the sole purpose of killing Russian tanks and evening the odds. But now days the situation is reversed. We outspend the Russians alone, without NATO. By preconditioning equipment in Europe all we have to do is fly soldiers in to man the equipment and start rolling. The Russians see us as an aggressor and treat us accordingly.

Luckily, because of this it means that a full scale war in Europe is basically impossibly unless we push the Russians into a corner. And if they get pushed into that corner you can bet they will use nukes.